Alafaya, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

222
FXUS62 KMLB 191102
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
702 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers continue across the local waters
  and along the coast through Friday, with drier conditions
  anticipated over the weekend and into the start of next week.

- Poor to hazardous beach and boating conditions are forecast to
  persist over the next few days. A High risk of rip currents
  exists at all area beaches today. Entering the surf is strongly
  discouraged!

- A gradual warming trend is forecast through the period, with
  temperatures reaching above normal values once again this
  weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Today-Tonight... An upper level trough remains over the eastern US
today while it slowly shift eastward towards the Atlantic waters
through tonight. Shortwave energy will traverse the base of the
trough and move over the Florida peninsula through the day. At the
surface, a stalled frontal boundary across Cuba is forecast to
remain in place, as high pressure remains centered across the Deep
South and up towards the Mid Atlantic region. Locally, breezy/gusty
north to northeast winds will prevail today, with speeds of 10-
15mph, and gusts to 30 mph possible at times. Rain chances will
continue today as the shortwave energy acts as an upper level
enhancement. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain
today and tonight over land, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward,
with 30-50 percent chance of rain forecast over the Atlantic waters.
Rainfall totals are forecast to remain below a quarter of an inch.
Lightning storms are not forecast at this time, as instability
remains limited and confidence remains too low.

Temperatures will begin a warming trend today with cloud cover
forecast to decrease slightly from yesterday. Afternoon highs will
be in the upper 60s along the coast north of the Cape with low to
mid 70s elsewhere. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s,
except in the upper 40s across the far northern parts of
Lake/Volusia counties. There is a High risk of rip currents at all
area beaches today. Due to the northerly winds, a southward-flowing
longshore current is likely also present. Entering the surf is not
advised with these conditions!

Friday-Monday... Upper level troughing along the eastern US on
Friday will steadily move eastward, out into the Atlantic, through
the weekend. Shortwave energy will traverse across the Florida
peninsula through the day on Friday as the trough pushes offshore of
Florida by Friday evening. At the surface, the aforementioned
stalled frontal boundary across Cuba will continue to shift
southeast through the weekend, and eventually pushing into the
Caribbean Sea by late weekend. High pressure across the Deep south
and the Gulf, with the axis remains over the Florida peninsula, will
slowly shift eastward over Florida into the weekend. A cold front
across the Midwest and Central Plains on Sunday will move southward,
dropping into the Deep South on Monday and into the Florida
Panhandle Monday night. Locally, rain chances will remain on the
lower side, with a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain on
Friday, mainly across the Atlantic waters and along the Treasure
Coast, with conditions trending drier into the weekend and the start
of next week as that high pressure stretches from the Gulf towards
east central Florida. North to northeast winds at 10-15 mph on
Friday will become north to northwest and lighten to 5-10 mph by the
weekend, becoming variable at times as the high pressure settles
overhead. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop each
afternoon, turning the winds onshore briefly behind the boundary.

Temperatures will be on a warming trend this weekend and into early
next week. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the 80s once more
by this weekend and continue into early next week. Models are
indicating that temperatures could reach 5-7 degrees above normal
for this time of year, especially across the interior, by Monday.
Overnight lows will also be on a warming trend, with lows mainly in
the 50s through the weekend, and reaching low 60s, mainly across the
Orlando Metro area, by early next week. Patchy fog will once again
be possible late Friday night into Saturday morning along and
north of the I-4 corridor, as well as late Saturday night into
Sunday morning across the interior from Osceola northward.

Tuesday-Wednesday... An upper level trough across the Northeast US
on Tuesday will shift east and northward into New Brunswick and Nova
Scotia by mid week. At the surface, a cold front will stall across
north-central Florida into mid-week. Locally, moisture will increase
out ahead of the front, resulting in a low to medium (20-30 percent)
chance of rain areawide Tuesday and Wednesday. Due to increasing
cloud cover and rain chances returning, temperatures are forecast to
be slightly lower than the previous days, reaching near normal
temperatures by Wednesday. Overnight lows will be slightly above
normal for this time of year.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Today-Monday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast to
persist across the local Atlantic waters over the next several days.
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Volusia waters
starting at 2 AM, expanding to all the waters at 8 AM. North to
northeast winds between 15 to 25 knots through Friday, before winds
turn north to northwest and decrease to around 10 KT or less on
Saturday as high pressure stretches from the Gulf to the Atlantic
waters. Winds then become more westerly with speeds generally around
10 KT on Sunday, and increasing to 10-15 KT on Monday. Seas will
build to  5-7ft in the nearshore waters, and 6-9ft in the offshore
waters today, diminishing to 5-7ft by Friday night, 3-5ft by Sunday,
and 2-3ft by Monday. Generally favorable boating conditions are
forecast late weekend into early next week.

Isolated to scattered showers are forecast to continue across the
local Atlantic waters through Friday as a stalled boundary draped
across Cuba and the Bahamas produces a plume of moisture across the
area. Rain chances fall over the weekend as high pressure moves into
the area and drier air settles across east central Florida and the
local Atlantic waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 702 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Increasing N/NE winds will lead to breezy to windy conditions
today and transport isolated to scattered showers across the
coastal waters onshore along the coast. This shower activity and
increasing low level cloud cover may lead to MVFR conditions,
mainly at coastal terminals. However, for now have continued
mostly VFR conditions in the latest TAFs, with precip mention
limited to VCSH. The only exception is at KSUA where MVFR cigs are
included from 18-03Z where there is a greater potential for these
lower cloud bases. Isolated to scattered onshore moving showers
will continue overnight tonight, mainly along the Treasure Coast,
which may continue tempo MVFR conditions from KVRB-KSUA.

N/NE winds will increase to 15-20 knots after 14Z, with gusts up
to 25-30 knots. Strongest winds and gusts are currently forecast
along the coast. After 00Z winds will gradually decrease, but
speeds will still remain elevated around 10-15 knots this evening,
diminishing to 6-11 knots overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Sensitive fire weather conditions are forecast across east central
Florida today and over the next few days due to near-critical
minimum RH values and breezy north to northeast winds of 10 to 15
mph. Winds are anticipated to subside to 5 to 10 mph by Saturday,
but near-critical RH values are forecast to persist into the
weekend. These sensitive conditions will only be further exacerbated
by warming temperatures through the forecast period. An improvement
in RH values is forecast early next week as moisture increases as a
frontal boundary approaches the peninsula. Steps to prevent wildfire
creation or spread should be taken, including not parking on dried
out grass, discarding cigarettes properly, and avoiding any outdoor
burning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  54  73  52 /  10  10  10   0
MCO  71  54  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  72  59  75  56 /  30  20  20  10
VRB  74  59  76  56 /  30  30  30  10
LEE  72  50  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  72  53  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  72  55  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  75  58  76  55 /  20  40  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ555-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Weitlich